US swingometer

President 2028

Democrat226

Popular vote49.2 50.8

270 to win

Republican312

AK3AL9AR6AZ11CA54CO10FL30GA16IA6ID4IL19IN11KS6KY8LA8ME4MI15MN10MO10MS6MT4NC16ND3NE5NM5NV6NY28OH17OK7OR8PA19SC9SD3TN11TX40UT6VA13WA12WI10WV4WY3VT 3NH 4MA 11RI 4CT 7NJ 14DE 3MD 10DC 3HI 4

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Tipping pointPA R+1.7
Popular vote49.2 50.8

Democratic lead

10+5-102-5<2

Republican lead

<22-55-1010+
Changed from 2024

Towards D

10+7-104-72-41-2<1

Towards R

<11-22-44-77-1010+
Changed from 2024

Change vs national

More towards D

10+7-104-72-41-2<1

More towards R

<11-22-44-77-1010+
Changed from 2024
Maine
Nebraska
Shift everyone0

Shift everyone

White grads

White non-grads

Black

Hispanic

Asian and other

Each state's voters by group and age (CPS 2024 turnout, CES 2024 vote), moved by the sliders.

Sources

Electorate: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 (public domain). Turnout: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2024 (public domain). Vote by group: Cooperative Election Study 2024 (CC0).

2024 results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab (state, precinct, precinct; CC0); Voting and Election Science Team (2016, 2020; CC BY 4.0); US Census Bureau block files; Texas Legislative Council and state election offices; Wikipedia (Maine, Indiana, Oregon, Nebraska districts; CC BY-SA 4.0).

2028 polls: Wikipedia, Nationwide opinion polling for the 2028 United States presidential election (CC BY-SA 4.0); PollCheck averages. Crosstabs: YouGov for The Bulwark x Pablo Torre Finds Out; UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion / YouGov; Emerson College Polling; Overton Insights; John Zogby Strategies; AtlasIntel; YouGov (Source: YouGov plc, 2026, (c) All rights reserved).

Map: us-atlas (ISC).