2028 presidential election

2028 presidential election polls

PollCheck averages of national head-to-head polls. Updated November 9, 2026.

Polling averages

Every head-to-head on one scale

Republican DemocratHollow: latest poll, no average yet
JD VanceGavin NewsomVance vs. NewsomAverage of 5 polls40.643.9D+3.3JD VanceAlexandria Ocasio-CortezVance vs. Ocasio-CortezAverage of 6 polls45.240.8R+4.4JD VanceKamala HarrisVance vs. HarrisAverage of 3 polls43.648.4D+4.8Marco RubioGavin NewsomRubio vs. NewsomAverage of 3 polls42.844.0D+1.2Marco RubioAlexandria Ocasio-CortezRubio vs. Ocasio-CortezAverage of 4 polls45.940.2R+5.7JD VancePete ButtigiegVance vs. ButtigiegLatest of 4 polls, no average3638D+2Marco RubioKamala HarrisRubio vs. HarrisLatest of 3 polls, no average4843R+5Marco RubioJon OssoffRubio vs. OssoffLatest of 1 poll, no average4447D+3Donald Trump Jr.Trump Jr. vs. BidenLatest of 1 poll, no average3637D+1JD VanceVance vs. CubanLatest of 1 poll, no average3439D+5JD VanceJon OssoffVance vs. OssoffLatest of 1 poll, no average4449D+5JD VanceJosh ShapiroVance vs. ShapiroLatest of 1 poll, no average3734R+3JD VanceVance vs. SmithLatest of 1 poll, no average3735R+2JD VanceVance vs. WhitmerLatest of 1 poll, no average4033R+7

2028 candidates 2028 primaries

How the average works
The average uses polls from the last 180 days, weighting recent and larger polls more. Each polling house counts once, and partisan-sponsored polls (R or D) count half. Where a poll reports several populations, likely voters are used first. A match-up needs 3 polls from 2 polling houses for an average.
Questions

Who is ahead in 2028 presidential election polls?

In PollCheck averages of national head-to-head polls as of November 9, 2026: Vance 40.6%, Newsom 43.9%; Vance 45.2%, Ocasio-Cortez 40.8%; Vance 43.6%, Harris 48.4%.

When is the 2028 presidential election?

November 7, 2028.

Which polls are included?

The averages use national head-to-head polls from the last 180 days, each linked to its source. 5 of the 14 pairings have enough polls for an average.

Poll lists adapted from Wikipedia: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2028 United States presidential election (revision 1384610890). Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0; PollCheck averages are derived from them.

Photos: Gavin Newsom by Charles Ommanney - Office of the Governor of California, CC BY-SA 4.0 (source, cropped); Donald Trump Jr. by Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 4.0 (source, cropped); Josh Shapiro by Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0 (source, cropped); others official portraits, public domain (US government); see Photo credits.

Data through November 9, 2026.