US / US midterms 2026 / Minnesota Senate
Minnesota senate
Minnesota Senate 2026 results: Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Complete
DDHQ projects Peggy Flanagan (D), 12:05 am Wed ET
Peggy Flanagan D53.7%
1,520,571 votes
Michele Tafoya R43.6%
1,233,465 votes
Marisa Simonetti I1.5%
41,565 votes
Rebecca Whiting L1.1%
32,471 votes
Others O0.1%
3,346 votes
4,105 of 4,105 precincts reporting. Minnesota Secretary of State, Nov 9, 2:07 am ET (7:07 am UK).
Count over time
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Average: Flanagan +4.7. Result: Flanagan +10.1
Peggy Flanagan (D)
48.5%
+1.8 in 30 days
Michele Tafoya (R)
43.8%
+0.8 in 30 days
Win probability
76%
Flanagan - Lean D
- Incumbent
- Tina Smith (D)
- Status
- Incumbent retiring
- Last result
- 2020: Tina Smith (D) 48.8%, Jason Lewis (R) 43.5%
- 2024 president
- D+4.2
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 9 pm Eastern (2 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Minnesota senate polling average
Every poll
31 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Flanagan | Tafoya | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. Leans D+0.1 | 30 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | 48% | 43% | Flanagan +5 | Flanagan +0.3 | Pollster |
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 2,133 LV | 48% | 46% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -2.7 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7 | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,365 LV | 52% | 43% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, another version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,365 LV | 52% | 43% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,423 RV | 52% | 42% | Flanagan +10 | Flanagan +5.3 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,423 RV | 51% | 42% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 29 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 49% | 46% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -3.1 | Pollster |
| KSTP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 24 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 714 LV | 48% | 41% | Flanagan +7 | Flanagan +0.9 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 19 Oct 2026 - 26 Oct 2026 | 752 LV | 54% | 40% | Flanagan +14 | Flanagan +7.9 | Pollster |
| Victory Insights R Leans R+0.1↑ Poll commissioned by Tafoya's campaign. | 21 Oct 2026 - 22 Oct 2026 | 1,194 LV | 48% | 44% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.3 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 20 Oct 2026 - 21 Oct 2026 | 1,182 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.4 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 13 Oct 2026 - 15 Oct 2026 | 1,079 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.4 | Pollster |
| KSTP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 8 Oct 2026 - 12 Oct 2026 | 718 LV | 45% | 42% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.3 | Pollster |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Leans R+0.9↑ Poll sponsored by KARE 11 & The Minnesota Star Tribune | 5 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 47% | 43% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.3 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 5 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 856 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.3 | Pollster |
| Morning Consult Leans R+1.6↑ Poll conducted for The Daily Agenda | 2 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 1,000 RV | 45% | 41% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.3 | Pollster |
| GQR D | 1 Oct 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 53% | 44% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +5.3 | Pollster |
| GQR DNot in average: same survey, another version used | 1 Oct 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 50% | 42% | Flanagan +8 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll R Leans D+0.5 | 29 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 622 LV | 46% | 44% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -0.6 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll R Leans D+0.5Not in average: same survey, another version used | 29 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 622 LV | 40% | 38% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -0.6 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 28 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 1,200 LV | 46% | 45% | Flanagan +1 | Flanagan -1.7 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 14 Sep 2026 - 15 Sep 2026 | 833 LV | 43% | 42% | Flanagan +1 | Flanagan -2.0 | Pollster |
| KSTP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 9 Sep 2026 - 14 Sep 2026 | 654 LV | 42% | 42% | Tie | Flanagan -2.7 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4 | 8 Sep 2026 - 10 Sep 2026 | 720 LV | 48% | 44% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.5 | Pollster |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1↑ Poll sponsored by the League of American WorkersNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 31 Aug 2026 - 2 Sep 2026 | 1,494 RV | 40% | 38% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -2.1 | Pollster |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1↑ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers | 31 Aug 2026 - 2 Sep 2026 | 1,201 LV | 44% | 42% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -2.1 | Pollster |
| Deep Root Analytics R | 17 Aug 2026 - 18 Aug 2026 | 597 RV | 50% | 45% | Flanagan +5 | Pollster | |
| KTSP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 13 Aug 2026 - 17 Aug 2026 | 661 LV | 46% | 41% | Flanagan +5 | Pollster | |
| Impact Research D Leans D+0.4Poll sponsored by Craig's campaignNot in average: taken before the primary (11 August) | 26 May 2026 - 28 May 2026 | 808 LV | 51% | 44% | Flanagan +7 | Pollster | |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: taken before the primary (11 August) | 6 Feb 2026 - 8 Feb 2026 | 1,000 LV | 47% | 41% | Flanagan +6 | Pollster | |
| Impact Research D Leans D+0.4Poll sponsored by Craig's campaignNot in average: taken before the primary (11 August) | 8 Jul 2025 - 11 Jul 2025 | 604 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Pollster |
More on Minnesota
Minnesota governor results
Minnesota voter registration
Minnesota state legislature and officials
Minnesota supreme court
Minnesota past election results
Minnesota House districts
More on the 2026 midterms
More races
Iowa - Alaska - Louisiana - Maine - Ohio (special) - Kansas - Texas - South Carolina - Nebraska - Michigan - New Hampshire - Idaho - Florida (special) - Georgia - North Carolina - Montana - Arkansas - Illinois - South Dakota - Alabama - New Mexico - Colorado - Massachusetts - Rhode Island
Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).