US / US midterms 2026 / Michigan Senate
Michigan senate
Michigan Senate 2026 results: Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Result so far: 96% reporting
DDHQ projects Abdul El-Sayed (D), 1:15 am Wed ET
Abdul El-Sayed D52.5%
2,506,953 votes
Mike Rogers R45.5%
2,172,463 votes
Lydia Christensen L1.0%
49,503 votes
Tim Long O0.6%
26,409 votes
Douglas P. Marsh G0.3%
12,504 votes
Walter P. Kristy O0.1%
7,226 votes
Others O0.1%
3,612 votes
civicAPI, Nov 9, 1:43 am ET (6:43 am UK).
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
49.5%
+1.9 in 30 days
Mike Rogers (R)
45.2%
+0.7 in 30 days
Win probability
78%
El-Sayed - Lean D
- Incumbent
- Gary Peters (D)
- Status
- Incumbent retiring
- Last result
- 2020: Gary Peters (D) 49.9%, John James (R) 48.2%
- 2024 president
- R+1.4
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 8 pm Eastern (1 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Michigan senate polling average
Every poll
89 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | El-Sayed | Rogers | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies Leans R+0.9 | 31 Oct 2026 - 2 Nov 2026 | 1,001 LV | 51% | 49% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -2.3 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2↑ Poll sponsored by Poll Vault , a Substack newsletter authored by Sean Trende . | 31 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 500 LV | 51% | 45% | El-Sayed +6 | El-Sayed +1.6 | Pollster |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners D Leans D+2.4 | 31 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 510 LV | 51% | 41% | El-Sayed +10 | El-Sayed +5.6 | Pollster |
| Research Co. Leans D+0.1 | 30 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | 48% | 46% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -2.4 | Pollster |
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,316 LV | 54% | 46% | El-Sayed +8 | El-Sayed +3.6 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 23 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,011 LV | 53% | 42% | El-Sayed +11 | El-Sayed +6.6 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 31 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,087 LV | 47.1% | 45.9% | El-Sayed +1.2 | El-Sayed -3.2 | Pollster |
| HarrisX Leans R+1.1 | 30 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 663 LV | 48% | 45% | El-Sayed +3 | El-Sayed -1.4 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 28 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 745 LV | 49% | 44% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +1.0 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 2,093 LV | 51% | 47% | El-Sayed +4 | 0.0 | Pollster |
| Upswing Research D↑ Poll sponsored by Demand Justice | 24 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 505 LV | 50% | 45% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +1.2 | Pollster |
| Mitchell Research & Communications Leans D+0.1Poll conducted for CBS Detroit . | 26 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2026 | 636 LV | 51% | 44% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +3.2 | Pollster |
| SSRS Leans D+0.8↑ "CNN poll conducted by SSRS Michigan October" . CNN . October 29, 2026 . Retrieved October 29, 2026 – via DocumentCloud .; Poll conducted for CNN | 20 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2026 | 768 LV | 49% | 42% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +3.2 | Pollster |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2 | 23 Oct 2026 - 25 Oct 2026 | 622 LV | 50% | 46% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +0.4 | Pollster |
| RedBox Research D↑ Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having, a Democratic-aligned Super PAC | 20 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 2,696 LV | 49% | 44% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +1.5 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University /Verasight Leans D+1.6 | 8 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 1,383 LV | 51% | 43% | El-Sayed +8 | El-Sayed +4.5 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University /Verasight Leans D+1.6Not in average: same survey, another version used | 8 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 1,383 LV | 48% | 42% | El-Sayed +6 | El-Sayed +2.5 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 21 Oct 2026 - 22 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 46% | El-Sayed +1 | El-Sayed -1.9 | Pollster |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll conducted for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | 19 Oct 2026 - 22 Oct 2026 | 600 LV | 51% | 45% | El-Sayed +6 | El-Sayed +3.1 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 2 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 836 LV | 48% | 46% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -0.7 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 2 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 836 LV | 48% | 44% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +1.3 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 2 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 1,000 A | 45% | 41% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +1.3 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 2 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 1,000 A | 44% | 39% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +2.3 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6 | 15 Oct 2026 - 18 Oct 2026 | - LV | 50% | 48% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -0.8 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 15 Oct 2026 - 18 Oct 2026 | 1,185 RV | 52% | 45% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +4.2 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 12 Oct 2026 - 14 Oct 2026 | 798 LV | 46% | 44% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -1.0 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 9 Oct 2026 - 10 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 48% | 46% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -0.9 | Pollster |
| The Tyson Group R Leans R+1.3Poll sponsored by Alliance for a Better Future | 6 Oct 2026 - 8 Oct 2026 | 600 LV | 44% | 46% | Rogers +2 | El-Sayed -5.0 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4 | 5 Oct 2026 - 6 Oct 2026 | 762 LV | 48% | 47% | El-Sayed +1 | El-Sayed -2.0 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 5 Oct 2026 - 6 Oct 2026 | 762 LV | 51% | 49% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -1.0 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 22 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 3,949 LV | 49% | 48% | El-Sayed +1 | El-Sayed -2.1 | Pollster |
| Mitchell Research & Communications Leans D+0.1Poll conducted for CBS Detroit . | 1 Oct 2026 | 682 LV | 46% | 41% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +1.5 | Pollster |
| Z to A Research D Leans D+0.6↑ Poll sponsored by Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democrats | 28 Sep 2026 - 1 Oct 2026 | 483 LV | 49% | 42% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +3.5 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 28 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 1,085 LV | 47% | 45% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed -1.3 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox News | 24 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 1,028 LV | 50% | 49% | El-Sayed +1 | El-Sayed -2.2 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox NewsNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 24 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 1,203 RV | 51% | 48% | El-Sayed +3 | El-Sayed -0.2 | Pollster |
| The Tyson Group R Leans R+1.3Poll sponsored by Alliance for a Better Future | 24 Sep 2026 - 27 Sep 2026 | 600 LV | 44% | 43% | El-Sayed +1 | El-Sayed -2.3 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6 | 24 Sep 2026 - 27 Sep 2026 | 1,235 RV | 51% | 44% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +3.7 | Pollster |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy Leans R+0.0Poll commissioned by Public First Action | 20 Sep 2026 - 27 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 48% | 43% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +1.7 | Pollster |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy Leans R+0.0Poll commissioned by Public First ActionNot in average: same survey, another version used | 20 Sep 2026 - 27 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 49% | 45% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +0.7 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll R Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by the Public Polling Project | 22 Sep 2026 - 24 Sep 2026 | 678 LV | 47% | 42% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +2.2 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll R Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by the Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, another version used | 22 Sep 2026 - 24 Sep 2026 | 678 LV | 46% | 40% | El-Sayed +6 | El-Sayed +3.2 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll R Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by the Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 22 Sep 2026 - 24 Sep 2026 | 725 RV | 44% | 39% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +2.2 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 21 Sep 2026 - 23 Sep 2026 | 843 LV | 45% | 45% | Tie | El-Sayed -2.7 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3Not in average: same survey, another version used | 21 Sep 2026 - 23 Sep 2026 | 843 LV | 50% | 50% | Tie | El-Sayed -2.7 | Pollster |
| GBAO D Leans D+1.7 | 19 Sep 2026 - 22 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 48% | 44% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +1.4 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 15 Sep 2026 - 22 Sep 2026 | 605 LV | 49% | 44% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +2.4 | Pollster |
| Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) Leans D+0.1↑ Poll sponsored by Michigan Enjoyer | 18 Sep 2026 - 21 Sep 2026 | 600 LV | 45% | 40% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +2.4 | Pollster |
| Suffolk University Leans D+1.0 | 16 Sep 2026 - 20 Sep 2026 | 500 LV | 47% | 40% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +4.8 | Pollster |
| Torchlight Strategies R Leans R+1.7↑ Poll sponsored by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republicans | 15 Sep 2026 - 19 Sep 2026 | 643 LV | 43% | 44% | Rogers +1 | El-Sayed -2.8 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 16 Sep 2026 - 17 Sep 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 45% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed +0.1 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2 | 12 Sep 2026 - 14 Sep 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48% | 46% | El-Sayed +2 | El-Sayed +0.2 | Pollster |
| The Washington Post / SSPG Leans D+2.7 | 10 Sep 2026 - 14 Sep 2026 | 803 LV | 48% | 45% | El-Sayed +3 | El-Sayed +1.2 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 7 Sep 2026 - 9 Sep 2026 | 1,079 LV | 46% | 45% | El-Sayed +1 | El-Sayed -0.9 | Pollster |
| SSRS Leans D+0.8↑ "CNN Poll Conducted by SSRS - Michigan" . SSRS . September 9, 2026 . Retrieved September 14, 2026 – via DocumentCloud .; Poll conducted for CNN | 31 Aug 2026 - 6 Sep 2026 | 843 LV | 47% | 44% | El-Sayed +3 | El-Sayed +1.1 | Pollster |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll conducted for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | 31 Aug 2026 - 3 Sep 2026 | 600 LV | 44% | 46% | Rogers +2 | El-Sayed -3.8 | Pollster |
| Abacus Data Leans D+2.5 | 26 Aug 2026 - 28 Aug 2026 | 332 LV | 49% | 45% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +1.5 | Pollster |
| Abacus Data Leans D+2.5Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 26 Aug 2026 - 28 Aug 2026 | 500 RV | 48% | 41% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +4.5 | Pollster |
| EPIC-MRA Leans R+0.3 | 22 Aug 2026 - 28 Aug 2026 | 600 LV | 50% | 45% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +2.5 | Pollster |
| EPIC-MRA Leans R+0.3Not in average: same survey, another version used | 22 Aug 2026 - 28 Aug 2026 | 600 LV | 47% | 43% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +1.5 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 10 Aug 2026 - 20 Aug 2026 | 779 LV | 50% | 45% | El-Sayed +5 | El-Sayed +3.1 | Pollster |
| Michigan State University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 10 Aug 2026 - 20 Aug 2026 | 913 RV | 48% | 44% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +2.1 | Pollster |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research R Leans D+1.1 | 11 Aug 2026 - 17 Aug 2026 | 800 LV | 46% | 39% | El-Sayed +7 | El-Sayed +6.1 | Pollster |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) Leans D+0.8↑ Poll commissioned by AARP | 9 Aug 2026 - 11 Aug 2026 | 877 LV | 48% | 47% | El-Sayed +1 | El-Sayed +1.0 | Pollster |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes , former senior advisor to President Donald Trump .Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 6 Aug 2026 - 10 Aug 2026 | 1,528 RV | 43% | 39% | El-Sayed +4 | El-Sayed +4.1 | Pollster |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes , former senior advisor to President Donald Trump . | 6 Aug 2026 - 10 Aug 2026 | 1,215 LV | 45% | 42% | El-Sayed +3 | El-Sayed +3.1 | Pollster |
| GBAO D Leans D+1.7↑ Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate | 6 Aug 2026 - 10 Aug 2026 | 800 LV | 50% | 44% | El-Sayed +6 | El-Sayed +6.1 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox News | 6 Aug 2026 - 10 Aug 2026 | 1,006 RV | 47% | 51% | Rogers +4 | El-Sayed -3.9 | Pollster |
| EPIC-MRA Leans R+0.3Poll conducted for MIRS NewsNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 24 Jul 2026 - 31 Jul 2026 | 600 LV | 43% | 46% | Rogers +3 | Pollster | |
| SoCal Strategies R Leans R+1.0Poll sponsored by Red Eagle PoliticsNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 28 Jul 2026 - 30 Jul 2026 | 640 LV | 41% | 42% | Rogers +1 | Pollster | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications Leans D+0.1Not in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 28 Jul 2026 - 29 Jul 2026 | 672 LV | 45% | 45% | Tie | Pollster | |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll commissioned jointly by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan .Not in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 22 Jul 2026 - 24 Jul 2026 | 600 LV | 39% | 49% | Rogers +10 | Pollster | |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 29 Jun 2026 - 30 Jun 2026 | 947 LV | 45% | 44% | El-Sayed +1 | Pollster | |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Poll sponsored by the Working Families Party , which supports El-SayedNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 15 Jun 2026 - 22 Jun 2026 | 709 LV | 47% | 46% | El-Sayed +1 | Pollster | |
| Zenith Research DPoll commissioned by Common Defense, which supports El-SayedNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 11 Jun 2026 - 14 Jun 2026 | 602 LV | 45% | 42% | El-Sayed +3 | Pollster | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications Leans D+0.1Poll conducted for MIRS NewsNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 11 Jun 2026 - 13 Jun 2026 | 827 LV | 47% | 42% | El-Sayed +5 | Pollster | |
| Tulchin Research D Leans D+0.6Poll commissioned by Fighting for Michigan, a pro-El-Sayed super PACNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 2 Jun 2026 - 4 Jun 2026 | 500 LV | 46% | 41% | El-Sayed +5 | Pollster | |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes , former senior advisor to President Donald Trump .Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 20 May 2026 - 23 May 2026 | 1,456 RV | 40% | 40% | Tie | Pollster | |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes , former senior advisor to President Donald Trump .Not in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 20 May 2026 - 23 May 2026 | 1,163 LV | 43% | 42% | El-Sayed +1 | Pollster | |
| Mitchell Research Leans D+0.1Poll conducted for MIRS NewsNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 1 May 2026 - 7 May 2026 | 607 LV | 41% | 42% | Rogers +1 | Pollster | |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll sponsored by The Detroit Regional ChamberNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 28 Apr 2026 - 1 May 2026 | 600 LV | 40% | 45% | Rogers +5 | Pollster | |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll sponsored by The Detroit Regional ChamberNot in average: same survey, another version used | 28 Apr 2026 - 1 May 2026 | 600 LV | 42% | 45% | Rogers +3 | Pollster | |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 24 Jan 2026 - 25 Jan 2026 | 1,000 LV | 43% | 43% | Tie | Pollster | |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll conducted for The Detroit News , which supports Stevens, and WDIV-TVNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 2 Jan 2026 - 6 Jan 2026 | 600 LV | 47% | 43% | El-Sayed +4 | Pollster | |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll conducted for The Detroit News , which supports Stevens, and WDIV-TVNot in average: same survey, another version used | 2 Jan 2026 - 6 Jan 2026 | 600 LV | 42% | 48% | Rogers +6 | Pollster | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications Leans D+0.1Not in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 18 Nov 2025 - 21 Nov 2025 | 616 LV | 38% | 41% | Rogers +3 | Pollster | |
| Rosetta Stone Communications RNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 23 Oct 2025 - 25 Oct 2025 | 637 LV | 31% | 45% | Rogers +14 | Pollster | |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll sponsored by The Detroit Regional ChamberNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 5 May 2025 - 8 May 2025 | 600 RV | 41% | 47% | Rogers +6 | Pollster | |
| Glengariff Group Leans R+0.8Poll sponsored by The Detroit Regional ChamberNot in average: same survey, another version used | 5 May 2025 - 8 May 2025 | 600 RV | 45% | 47% | Rogers +2 | Pollster |
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Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).