US / US midterms 2026 / North Carolina Senate
North Carolina senate
North Carolina Senate 2026 results: Michael Whatley (R) vs Roy Cooper (D)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Complete
DDHQ projects Roy Cooper (D), 8:25 pm ET
Democratic gain from Republicans
Roy Cooper D58.7%
2,467,972 votes
Michael Whatley R39.1%
1,643,114 votes
Shannon Bray L1.3%
55,727 votes
Michael Dublin G0.9%
36,405 votes
2,626 of 2,626 precincts reporting. North Carolina State Board of Elections, Nov 9, 2:07 am ET (7:07 am UK).
Count over time
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Average: Cooper +10.4. Result: Cooper +19.6
Michael Whatley (R)
41.9%
+1.3 in 30 days
Roy Cooper (D)
52.3%
+2.2 in 30 days
Win probability
96%
Cooper - Safe D
- Incumbent
- Thom Tillis (R)
- Status
- Incumbent retiring
- Last result
- 2020: Thom Tillis (R) 48.7%, Cal Cunningham (D) 46.9%
- 2024 president
- R+3.2
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 7:30 pm Eastern (12:30 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
North Carolina senate polling average
Every poll
73 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Whatley | Cooper | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,459 LV | 42% | 56% | Cooper +14 | Whatley -3.6 | Pollster |
| East Carolina University Leans R+0.9 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 1,041 LV | 45% | 54% | Cooper +9 | Whatley +1.4 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 2,130 LV | 44% | 55% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -0.6 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4 | 24 Oct 2026 - 25 Oct 2026 | 722 LV | 43% | 51% | Cooper +8 | Whatley +2.4 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 24 Oct 2026 - 25 Oct 2026 | 722 LV | 43% | 52% | Cooper +9 | Whatley +1.4 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 24 Oct 2026 - 25 Oct 2026 | 702 LV | 44% | 53% | Cooper +9 | Whatley +1.4 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 24 Oct 2026 - 25 Oct 2026 | 702 LV | 45% | 54% | Cooper +9 | Whatley +1.4 | Pollster |
| RedBox Research D | 20 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 3,292 LV | 43% | 50% | Cooper +7 | Whatley +3.3 | Pollster |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal | 18 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 600 LV | 39% | 49% | Cooper +10 | Whatley +0.8 | Pollster |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina JournalNot in average: same survey, another version used | 18 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 600 LV | 42% | 52% | Cooper +10 | Whatley +0.8 | Pollster |
| ActiVote Leans R+0.5 | 8 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 400 LV | 43% | 57% | Cooper +14 | Whatley -3.2 | Pollster |
| High Point University / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 1 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 620 LV | 40% | 54% | Cooper +14 | Whatley -3.2 | Pollster |
| SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1↑ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV and WSOC-TV | 7 Oct 2026 - 11 Oct 2026 | 643 LV | 40% | 54% | Cooper +14 | Whatley -3.8 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 8 Oct 2026 - 10 Oct 2026 | 1,091 LV | 41% | 49% | Cooper +8 | Whatley +1.6 | Pollster |
| Elon University / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 29 Sep 2026 - 8 Oct 2026 | 561 LV | 39% | 52% | Cooper +13 | Whatley -3.4 | Pollster |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward | 1 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 829 LV | 40% | 50% | Cooper +10 | Whatley -0.5 | Pollster |
| East Carolina University Leans R+0.9 | 30 Sep 2026 - 3 Oct 2026 | 810 LV | 43% | 50% | Cooper +7 | Whatley +2.5 | Pollster |
| East Carolina University Leans R+0.9Not in average: same survey, another version used | 30 Sep 2026 - 3 Oct 2026 | 810 LV | 46% | 53% | Cooper +7 | Whatley +2.5 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5 | 27 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 642 LV | 35% | 47% | Cooper +12 | Whatley -2.4 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5Not in average: same survey, another version used | 27 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 642 LV | 39% | 51% | Cooper +12 | Whatley -2.4 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 698 RV | 34% | 45% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -1.4 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 698 RV | 38% | 49% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -1.4 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4 | 21 Sep 2026 - 22 Sep 2026 | 686 LV | 43% | 48% | Cooper +5 | Whatley +4.3 | Pollster |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) Leans D+0.8↑ Poll commissioned by AARP | 17 Sep 2026 - 20 Sep 2026 | 1,806 LV | 42% | 53% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -1.5 | Pollster |
| Opinion Diagnostics↑ Poll sponsored by Common Cause North Carolina | 17 Sep 2026 - 20 Sep 2026 | 857 LV | 41% | 51% | Cooper +10 | Whatley -0.5 | Pollster |
| Opinion Diagnostics↑ Poll sponsored by Common Cause North CarolinaNot in average: same survey, another version used | 17 Sep 2026 - 20 Sep 2026 | 857 LV | 44% | 52% | Cooper +8 | Whatley +1.5 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 15 Sep 2026 - 18 Sep 2026 | 3,864 RV | 41% | 52% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -1.9 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 15 Sep 2026 - 18 Sep 2026 | 3,742 LV | 41% | 53% | Cooper +12 | Whatley -2.9 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 15 Sep 2026 - 18 Sep 2026 | 3,511 LV | 41% | 54% | Cooper +13 | Whatley -3.9 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 16 Sep 2026 - 17 Sep 2026 | 1,200 LV | 43% | 48% | Cooper +5 | Whatley +3.1 | Pollster |
| High Point University Leans D+0.7Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 9 Sep 2026 - 16 Sep 2026 | 813 RV | 39% | 49% | Cooper +10 | Whatley -1.5 | Pollster |
| High Point University Leans D+0.7 | 9 Sep 2026 - 16 Sep 2026 | 706 LV | 42% | 50% | Cooper +8 | Whatley +0.5 | Pollster |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal | 13 Sep 2026 - 15 Sep 2026 | 608 LV | 34% | 49% | Cooper +15 | Whatley -6.1 | Pollster |
| Catawba College / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 4 Sep 2026 - 15 Sep 2026 | 885 LV | 35% | 47% | Cooper +12 | Whatley -3.1 | Pollster |
| Catawba College / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 4 Sep 2026 - 15 Sep 2026 | 885 LV | 37% | 48% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -2.1 | Pollster |
| The Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 8 Sep 2026 - 10 Sep 2026 | 1,084 LV | 42% | 48% | Cooper +6 | Whatley +2.0 | Pollster |
| East Carolina University Leans R+0.9 | 31 Aug 2026 - 3 Sep 2026 | 675 LV | 39% | 46% | Cooper +7 | Whatley +1.1 | Pollster |
| East Carolina University Leans R+0.9Not in average: same survey, another version used | 31 Aug 2026 - 3 Sep 2026 | 675 LV | 44% | 52% | Cooper +8 | Whatley +0.1 | Pollster |
| Elon University / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 21 Aug 2026 - 31 Aug 2026 | 565 LV | 38% | 49% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -2.8 | Pollster |
| Elon University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 21 Aug 2026 - 31 Aug 2026 | 677 RV | 36% | 49% | Cooper +13 | Whatley -4.8 | Pollster |
| Elon University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 21 Aug 2026 - 31 Aug 2026 | 800 A | 29% | 39% | Cooper +10 | Whatley -1.8 | Pollster |
| High Point University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 3 Aug 2026 - 12 Aug 2026 | 800 RV | 41% | 48% | Cooper +7 | Whatley +0.8 | Pollster |
| High Point University / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 3 Aug 2026 - 12 Aug 2026 | 660 LV | 45% | 50% | Cooper +5 | Whatley +2.8 | Pollster |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal | 9 Aug 2026 - 10 Aug 2026 | 600 LV | 39% | 52% | Cooper +13 | Whatley -4.0 | Pollster |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward | 3 Aug 2026 - 6 Aug 2026 | 915 LV | 43% | 50% | Cooper +7 | Whatley +1.6 | Pollster |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6 | 29 Jul 2026 - 1 Aug 2026 | 967 V | 41% | 50% | Cooper +9 | Whatley -0.2 | Pollster |
| Elon University / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 23 Jul 2026 - 31 Jul 2026 | 466 LV | 42% | 53% | Cooper +11 | Whatley -2.2 | Pollster |
| Elon University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 23 Jul 2026 - 31 Jul 2026 | 717 RV | 35% | 51% | Cooper +16 | Whatley -7.2 | Pollster |
| Elon University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 23 Jul 2026 - 31 Jul 2026 | 800 A | 33% | 47% | Cooper +14 | Whatley -5.2 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3↑ Poll conducted for Fox News | 23 Jul 2026 - 27 Jul 2026 | 1,005 RV | 44% | 53% | Cooper +9 | Whatley -1.0 | Pollster |
| Public Policy Polling D Leans D+0.9 | 10 Jul 2026 - 11 Jul 2026 | 759 LV | 44% | 48% | Cooper +4 | Whatley +3.1 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 15 Jun 2026 - 27 Jun 2026 | 601 LV | 43% | 50% | Cooper +7 | Pollster | |
| Catawba College / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 1 Jun 2026 - 10 Jun 2026 | 905 LV | 34% | 48% | Cooper +14 | Pollster | |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 10 May 2026 - 11 May 2026 | 600 LV | 39% | 50% | Cooper +11 | Pollster | |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Poll sponsored by Carolina ForwardNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 4 May 2026 - 8 May 2026 | 957 LV | 42% | 49% | Cooper +7 | Pollster | |
| Opinion Diagnostics RNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 21 Apr 2026 - 24 Apr 2026 | 830 V | 41% | 50% | Cooper +9 | Pollster | |
| High Point University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 26 Mar 2026 - 6 Apr 2026 | 703 LV | 42% | 50% | Cooper +8 | Pollster | |
| High Point University / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 26 Mar 2026 - 6 Apr 2026 | 800 RV | 39% | 49% | Cooper +10 | Pollster | |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 31 Mar 2026 - 1 Apr 2026 | 987 LV | 44% | 49% | Cooper +5 | Pollster | |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina JournalNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 22 Mar 2026 - 23 Mar 2026 | 600 LV | 41% | 49% | Cooper +8 | Pollster | |
| Catawba College / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 9 Mar 2026 - 18 Mar 2026 | 1,000 LV | 34% | 48% | Cooper +14 | Pollster | |
| Public Policy Polling D Leans D+0.9Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 13 Mar 2026 - 14 Mar 2026 | 556 V | 44% | 47% | Cooper +3 | Pollster | |
| Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions↑ Poll sponsored by Healthier UnitedNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 8 Mar 2026 - 9 Mar 2026 | 800 RV | 32% | 50% | Cooper +18 | Pollster | |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 31 Jan 2026 - 4 Feb 2026 | 1,069 RV | 40% | 50% | Cooper +10 | Pollster | |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1↑ Poll sponsored by the League of American WorkersNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 12 Jan 2026 - 15 Jan 2026 | 1,512 RV | 24% | 48% | Cooper +24 | Pollster | |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Poll sponsored by Carolina ForwardNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 5 Jan 2026 - 7 Jan 2026 | 1,105 LV | 42% | 47% | Cooper +5 | Pollster | |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina JournalNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 9 Nov 2025 - 10 Nov 2025 | 600 LV | 39% | 47% | Cooper +8 | Pollster | |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina JournalNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 14 Sep 2025 - 15 Sep 2025 | 600 RV | 42% | 46% | Cooper +4 | Pollster | |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Poll sponsored by Carolina ForwardNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 2 Sep 2025 - 8 Sep 2025 | 855 LV | 41% | 48% | Cooper +7 | Pollster | |
| Harper Polling R Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by The Carolina JournalNot in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 11 Aug 2025 - 12 Aug 2025 | 600 RV | 39% | 47% | Cooper +8 | Pollster | |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 28 Jul 2025 - 30 Jul 2025 | 1,000 RV | 41% | 47% | Cooper +6 | Pollster | |
| Victory Insights R Leans R+0.1Not in average: taken before the primary (12 May) | 28 Jul 2025 - 30 Jul 2025 | 600 LV | 40% | 43% | Cooper +3 | Pollster | |
| Victory Insights R Leans R+0.1Not in average: same survey, another version used | 28 Jul 2025 - 30 Jul 2025 | 600 LV | 44% | 44% | Tie | Pollster |
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Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).